Former Likud MK Gideon Sa'ar's new party New Hope got off to a flying start in the three polls published last night by Israel's three main news channels, with at least 15 seats and a dramatic influence on the potential election outcome, and surprisingly reducing the number of seats that the left of center bloc would win.
According to Channel 11 KAN's poll, if the elections were held now Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would win 25 seats, Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope would win 18 seats, Naftali Bennett's Yamina 17 seats, Shas 8 seats, and United Torah Judaism 7 seats. Yair Lapid's Yessh Atid would win 15 seats, while Benny Gantz's Blue & White plunged to just seven seats. The United Arab List would win 11 seats, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu six seats, and Meretz six seats. When asked who would make a better Prime Minister 40% chose Netanyahu and 32% Sa'ar.
The poll found that if Gideon Sa'ar can persuade Likud MK Yifat Shasha- Biton and former IDF chief-of-staff Gadi Eisenkot to join his list, which already includes Blue & White MKs Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser, then he could win as many as 21 seats, with the Likud down to 23 seats. Yamina would win 17 seats, Yesh Atid 15, Joint Arab List 11, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Blue & White 6, Liberman 6, and Meretz 6.
In Channel 12's poll 29% preferred Netanyahu as prime minister, 16% Sa'ar, 13% Bennett, 10% Lapid, and only 5% Gantz. The Channel 12 poll found that if Sa'ar and Bennett joined forces, their party would win 32 seats with only 26 seats going to the Likud.
Channel 13's poll found the Likud winning 28 seats, Yamina 16 seats, Yesh Atid 16 seats and Sa'ar 15 seats. The Joint Arab List would win 11 seats, with seven seats going to Shas, United Torah Judaism, Meretz and Yisrael Beitenu and six seats to Blue & White. 73 seats for the right-wing bloc and 47 seats for the left-wing bloc and Liberman.
In all the polls the right wing bloc has a clear advantage but it is unclear whether Sa'ar and Netanyahu would be able to sit in the same government. On the other hand a center-right coalition without the Likud and Haredim might just be possible.
Published by Globes, Israel business news - en.globes.co.il - on December 10, 2020
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