Deutsche Bank analysts have revised their global economic growth forecast upward, for the first time since the beginning of the economic crisis, and now see global economic growth of 2.5% in 2010, compared with their previous estimate of 2% for that year.
As part of the global trend, the analysts see Israel's GDP growing 2% in 2010, after falling 1.1% in 2009. They expect Israel's inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rise 2.1% in 2009, and at a slower rate of 1.9% in 2010.
In contrast, the IMF sees the Israeli economy growing by just 0.3% in 2010, and the Bank of Israel's 2010 forecast is for 1% economic growth.
Deutsche Bank says its higher global growth forecast is entirely based on stronger expected growth in industrial countries with growth next year now forecast to reach 1% compared to its previous call of 0.3%. The bank sees two factors pushing for stronger economic growth - a better outlook for investment growth (which they increase to 2% from 0.1% in their previous estimate ), and better export growth (up to 4.1% from -2.2% before). Deutsche Bank says, "The improved prospects for exports and investment reflect greater confidence in the effectiveness of authorities’ efforts to restore stability in the financial sector."
Nonetheless, the bank warns that changes in global trade trends (a breakdown of the past decade's model of some countries importing goods and services mostly for domestic consumption, while others, such as Japan, Germany, and China produced to satisfy that demand) and the financial crisis seem to point to a period of lower trend growth and higher economic volatility.
Among other EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Australasia) region countries, Deutsche Bank sees Egypt's GDP growing 2.9% in 2009 and 5.4% in 2010 (Egypt's fiscal year ends June), Romania's GDP falling 3.9% in (calendar year) 2009 and rising 3.5% in 2010, Kazakhstan GDP falling 2.2% in 2009 and rising 3.3% in 2010, and Russia's GDP falling 4.4% in 2009 and rising 1.8% in 2010.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on June 30, 2009
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