Benjamin Netanyahu is starting the new year on the right foot. The September poll by Rafi Smith for "Globes" gives Likud a projected 28 Knesset seats, but by this evening the poll will be good for wrapping fish. After his show at the UN, the number of seats will rise, and Netanyahu will return to Israel a victor.
A speech at the UN General Assembly traditionally lifts Netanyahu by 2-3 seats. There's no doubt he's a good performer. He knows how to talk. The problem is that, no less traditionally, after two weeks back in Israel, the magic runs out, and with it the extra seats.
O how Netanyahu loves making speeches in English! If only he could speak in the US once a week, or even once a month, until the elections in Israel, he would consider staying there. Over there, he doesn't have to run a country, just talk. People are politer there, and there's no Gaza, no Sinai, and no Syria.
When he makes his way home, Netanyahu will surely think to himself, "If it's so good here, why do I have to go back there every time? So what if I'm their prime minister? Can't I stay in the US for a few more days? So what if they elected me? That's no reason to suffer," and he will immediately look for some Jewish conference he can speak at.
In his UN speech, Netanyahu will present a tough line on Iran. He did his rehearsal for the speech on Yom Kippur Eve at the Hovevei Zion Synagogue in Jerusalem. After undergoing comprehensive and meticulous searches by General Security Service guards, including in the pages of their prayer books, the congregation enjoyed the privilege of a Netanyahu speech of their own, mainly devoted to Iran. "Anyone who has tried to destroy Israel, has been destroyed," the prime minister said. That was just the promo. Netanyahu's son Yair, incidentally, is going along on the trip. One wonders what his contribution is supposed to be.
Yachimovich's horror show
As far as Knesset seats are concerned, the picture has hardly changed since last month. Everything is within the sampling error. Like Likud, the Labor party is also more or less in the same place. It looks as though Shelly Yachimovich has exhausted the momentum. 19 seats are an achievement that should not be underestimated, but it will be hard to break through that ceiling, especially after her intemperate display in the Channel 2 studio at the end of last week. The poll does not reflect the damage she may have caused herself by that interview, at the end of which she lost her self-control, and on her home ground.
That "horror show", as it has become known on the social networks, on live television, exposed another side of Yachimovich, for the first time since she entered political life. For the first time, she was caught lacking in confidence and hysterical. It won't be possible to evade the echoes of that interview. Whoever didn't see it live saw it on the social networks. The Internet erupted. Criticism was sounded even from within her own party. Even those who thought that what the Labor chairwoman said was right, criticized the way she said it, which included a verbal assault on a journalist who all in all asked a legitimate question.
Yachimovich has become accustomed to being cosseted by the press and media, and look what happens: the first time she is asked penetrating questions, she has an outburst and loses control. On the other hand, in the year that Yachimovich has been leader of her party, this is her first misstep, the first time her conduct has come into question. That too is an achievement.
Poll results
The figure in parentheses is the number of seats won at the last election. This is followed by projected seats in the Rafi Smith-"Globes" polls conducted in September and August. The poll was carried out among a representative sample of 500 people. Sampling error: 4.5%.
Likud (27) 28, 29
Labor (13) 19, 18
Israel Beitenu (15) 16, 17
Yesh Atid (-) 11, 7
Shas (11) 10, 10
Arab parties (10) 11, 11
Kadima (28) 4, 5
United Torah Judaism (5) 6, 7
Ichud Leumi (4) 4, 4
Habayit Hayehudi - New National Religious Party (3) 5, 5
Meretz (3) 4, 4
Ha'atzmaut (-) 2, 3
Green Movement (-) 0, 0
39% feel unprotected
The speech that Netanyahu makes in English at the UN this evening is mainly aimed at the translators in Israel. As the subtitles with the simultaneous translation run under the image of his body bowed over the podium desk, many Israelis will shrink back in their arm chairs. For more than a third of the public, the message that Netanyahu will convey that the option of an attack remains on the table will not be calming: 39% of Israelis feel that they will be almost completely unprotected in the face of a counter-attack by Iran in the event of an Israeli strike. The figure emerges from another poll carried out by the Rafi Smith Institute.
42% feel that they are protected only to a limited extent, and just 19% feel safe. In other words, 4 in 10 feel unprotected, and only 2 in 10 feel secure in the face of a possible attack on Iran.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on September 27, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012